Los Angeles Chargers
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Chargers-Broncos game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and insights (odds via FOX Bet):
RELATED: Week 18 lines
Point spread: Chargers -3 (Chargers favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Broncos cover)
Moneyline: Chargers -167 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.99 total); Broncos +130 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $23 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 39.5 points scored by both teams combined
Nick tiers the all 32 teams in the NFL including his beloved Kanas City Chiefs, NFC Super Bowl pick San Francisco 49ers and rival Buffalo Bills.
Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:
This game is as simple as they come from a betting perspective. Chalk it up to one of many ways the NFL completely botched their schedule for Week 18.
Originally, the desire for holding off announcing the start times of the games was blamed on a desire to group games that impact each other into the same time slot so that no team would decide to bench starters before kickoff.
The NFL failed miserably.
By playing the Ravens game ahead of the Chargers game, the Chargers will know if they are locked into the highest seed possible (5-seed) if Baltimore loses. And if the seven-point underdog Ravens lose to the Bengals, which seems likely based on the spread, the Chargers likely sit all key players.
The Chargers were favorites of 3.5 points on Wednesday morning. But at 3 p.m. ET, the NFL announced the Ravens-Bengals game would be played at 1 p.m. instead of 4:25 p.m. (the same time as the Chargers game). Within 45 minutes of that announcement, the Chargers line shifted from laying 3.5 points vs. the Broncos to the game being a pick-em. And within another 45 minutes, the Broncos became a 2.5-point favorite.
I was able to make several correlated bets which are quite +EV, particularly now. First, I parlayed the Bengals moneyline to the Broncos moneyline. If the Bengals won, the Chargers would rest, allowing an easier path for the Broncos to win. As the Broncos line began to move, I then teased the Broncos up through the 3 and 7 and paired them with the Bengals down through the 3.
Unfortunately, the extreme value is no longer the same, but the moneyline parlay is still correlated and could be a bet that is +EV.
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